*article courtesy of AZ Big Media
The housing market may not reach the incredible heights of 2021, but Zillow economists predict it will be anything but slow next year. Expect the strong sellers market to persist, the Sun Belt to maintain its top spot as the most in-demand region, and flexible work options to continue to shape housing decisions in new ways in 2022.
2022 will fall just short of record-breaking
2021 marked the hottest housing market in U.S. history by some measures, including Zillow’s Home Value Index. While we may not see those records broken in 2022, Zillow economists expect incredibly strong price growth and sales volume to continue.
Zillow’s forecast calls for 11% home value growth in 2022. That’s down from a projected 19.5% in 2021, a record year-end pace of home value appreciation, but would rank among the strongest years Zillow has tracked. Existing home sales are predicted to total 6.35 million, compared to an estimated 6.12 million this year. That would be the highest number of home sales in any year since 2006.
Sellers keep the upper hand
The usual seasonal cooldown in the housing market is reappearing this fall after a hiatus in 2020. Fewer homes are selling above list price, homes are staying on the market a few days longer than they did during the summer, and more sellers are cutting their price.
Zillow economists expect these metrics to trend slightly cooler in 2022, but don’t mistake that for a buyers market. The market forces that have given sellers the upper hand over the past two years or so — tight supply after years of underbuilding, and elevated demand due to remote work, U.S. demographics and low mortgage rates — will persist next year as well. Expect to see bidding wars on many homes, especially as the market heats up during the spring and summer shopping season.
Large rentals will be in high demand
Rising home values will impact the rental market as well. After a slowdown in the early months of the pandemic, rent prices came roaring back, especially in what were previously some of the most affordable markets. As rising costs make it harder to save for a down payment, expect demand for larger rentals to increase, including for single-family homes, as families stay in the rental market longer.
